Peer reviewed

Bennet EL, Underwood FM, Milner-Gulland EJ (2021) To Trade or Not to Trade? Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Assess How to Manage Commercial Wildlife Trade in a Complex World Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution doi: 10.3389/fevo.2021.587896

Biggs D, Smith RJ, Adams VM, Brink H, Cook CN, Cooney R, Holden MH, Maron M, Phelps J, Possingham HP, Redford KH, Scholes RJ, Sutherland WJ, Underwood FM, Milner-Gulland EJ (2018) Response – ivory crisis Science 360 (6386)  2018 277 – 278 doi: 10.1126/science.aat1596

Biggs D, Holden MH, Braczkowski A, Cook CN, Milner-Gulland EJ, Phelps J, Scholes RJ, Smith RJ, Underwood FM, Adams VM, Allan J, Brink H, Cooney R, Gao Y, Hutton J, Macdonald-Madden E, Maron M, Redford KH, Sutherland WJ, Possingham HP (2017) Breaking the deadlock on ivory. Science 358 (6369) 1378-1381 doi: 10.1126/science.aan5215

Underwood FM, Parkes G, Swasey JH (2016) Building Bayesian Belief Networks to investigate how fishery performance responds to management interventions. Fisheries Research doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2015.12.005

Parkes G, Swasey JH, Underwood FM, Fitzgerald TP, Strauss K, Agnew DJ (2016) The effects of catch share management on MSC certification scores. Fisheries Research doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2015.10.003

Underwood FM, Burn RW, Milliken T (2013) Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data. PLoS One 8(10): e76539. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0076539

Underwood FM (2013) Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1986-2009 compared to 1904-1985 for De Bilt, Holland. Meteorological Applications 20(4) 394 – 404 doi: 10.1002/met.1297

Ho CK, Hawkins E, Shaffrey L, Underwood FM (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics 41 (3-4) 917 – 935 doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Nicholson E, Collen B, Barausse A, Blanchard JL, Costelloe BT, Sullivan KME, Underwood FM, Burn RW, Fritz S, Jones JPG, McRae L, Possingham HP, Milner-Gulland EJ (2012) Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators. PLoS ONE 7(7) e41128. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041128

Underwood FM (2012) A framework for adapting survey design through time for wildlife population assessment. Environmental and Ecological Statistics doi: 10.1007/s10651-012-0193-4

Burn RW, Underwood FM, Blanc J.  (2011) Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data. PLoS ONE 6(9): e24165. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024165

Ayres KL, Underwood FM (2010). Electronic marking of statistics assessments for bioscience students. Bioscience Education, 15, c4.

Senapathi D, Underwood F, Black E, Nicoll MA, Norris K. (2010).  Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius. International  Journal of Climatology 30 1164-1177. doi: 10.1002/joc.1953.

Underwood FM (2009).  Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models. Journal of Hydrology,  364 285-297.doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.003 abstract

Bennett EL, Blencowe E, Brandon K, Brown D, Burn RW, Cowlishaw GC, Davies G, Dublin H, Fa J, Milner-Gulland EJ, Robinson JR, Rowcliffe JM, Underwood FM, Wilkie D (2007) Hunting for Consensus: a statement on reconciling bushmeat harvest, conservation and development policy in west and Central Africa. Conservation Biology 21(3) 884-887. abstract

Fa JE, Burn RW, Stanley Price MR and Underwood FM  (2004). Identifying important endemic areas using ecoregions: birds and mammals in the Indo-Pacific.  Oryx, 38 (1) 91-101. abstract

Underwood FM (2004) Design-based adaptive monitoring strategies for wildlife population assessment. PhD. University of St Andrews

Burn RW and Underwood FM (2000). Statistical aspects of sampling populations of forest elephants. Natural Resource Modeling 13(1) 135-150. abstract

Reports

Underwood FM (2023) Using seizure data to measure the scope and scale of organized crime. Organized Crime Index  Background Paper. Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Underwood FM (2019) Notes on R scripts used in the analysis of the Elephant Trade Information System data to report to the 18th CITES Conference of the Parties (CoP18): GitHub repository fmunderwood/ETIS_CITESReporting_RCode v. CoP18 Zenodo doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3334809

Milliken T, Underwood FM, Burn RW, Sangalakula (2018)  The Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) and the Illicit Trade in Ivory: A report to the 18th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES. CITES Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland. CoP18 Doc. 69.3 Annex 1

Underwood FM, Burn RW (2017). Annex I: Response by TRAFFIC and the MIKE-ETIS Technical Advisory Group (TAG) to Singapore’s comments on ETIS methodology. And contributing author to main document. SC69 Inf. 22

Milliken T, Underwood FM, Burn RW, Sangalakula L (2016) The Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) and the Illicit Trade in Ivory: A report to the 17th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES Annex to the Report on the Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) CoP17 Doc. 57.6 (Rev. 1) Annex

Milliken T, Underwood FM, Burn RW, Sangalajula L (2016) Addendum to The Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) and the Illicit Trade in Ivory: A report to the 17th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES CoP17 Doc. 57.6 (Rev. 1) Annex

Underwood FM Contributing author (2015) Status of African elephant populations and levels of illegal killing and the illegal trade in ivory: A report to the 66th Standing Committee of CITES SC66 Doc 47.1

Underwood FM (2015) Strategies for understanding how to measure changes in poaching pressure on elephants in the presence of varying natural mortality. A report to the Wildlife Conservation Society

Underwood FM (2015) Reflections on an analytical framework to link the four global monitoring systems for African elephants and trade in elephant specimens. A report to the MIKE program of CITES (UNEP)

Underwood FM Contributing author (2014)  Influence of Catch Share Management on Marine Stewardship Council Assessment Scores: Analysis Report. A report for the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation

Underwood FM Contributing author (2013) Status of African elephant populations and levels of illegal killing and the illegal trade in ivory: A report to the African Elephant Summit, December 2013

Burn RW, Underwood FM (2012) A new statistical modelling framework to interpret ivory seizures data: A Technical Report describing the new modelling framework for analysing seizures data from the Elephant Trade Information System. Mathematics Report series (1/2013) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, UK

Milliken T, Burn RW, Underwood FM, Sangalakula L (2012) Monitoring the illegal trade in ivory and other elephant specimens. Proceedings of the Conference of the Parties 16, CITES (UNEP) COP16 CoP16 Doc 53.2.2 (Rev.1)

Burn RW, Underwood FM, Blanc, J (2010) Trends and Factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants.  Monitoring of illegal hunting in elephant range states – update. Proceedings of the Conference of the Parties 15, CITES (UNEP)

Underwood FM  (2009) Contributing author to: Monitoring of illegal hunting in elephant range states. Proceedings of the Conference of the Parties 15, CITES (UNEP) COP15 Doc 44.2 http://www.cites.org/eng/cop/15/doc/E15-44-02.pdf

Underwood FM, Stern RD and Grayer CJ (2006) Analysis of the distribution of daily temperatures. Technical report for a major European industrial client (confidential)

Underwood FM, Grayer CJ and Stern RD (2006) Analysis of extreme daily effective temperatures. Technical report for a major European industrial client (confidential)

Underwood FM (2006) A method for analysing daily rainfall data to investigate evidence of climate change: An example using data from the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius Report for Darwin Initiative.  Mauritian Wildlife Foundation and National Parks and Conservation Service, Mauritius

Underwood FM (2005) A strategy for selecting baseline sites for the River Habitat Survey 2005 – 2007. Technical report to the Environment Agency (confidential)

Underwood FM (2005) Evaluation of a sampling strategy to determine the condition of cast iron trunk mains. Technical report to a major UK industrial client (confidential)

Milliken T, Burn RW, Underwood FM and Sangalakula L  (2004). The Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) and the illicit trade in ivory.  Proceedings of the Conference of the Parties to CITES (UNEP), Bangkok: 13, Doc 29.2A

Underwood FM  (2004). Contributing author to: Monitoring of illegal hunting in elephant range states.  Proceedings of the Conference of the Parties to CITES (UNEP), Bangkok: 13, Doc 29.3.

Burn RW, Underwood FM, and Hunter ND (2004), MIKE Data Analysis Strategy. MIKE CITES (UNEP)

Burn RW and Underwood FM (2001), Monitoring Round Island Reptiles: A Preliminary Report, Report for Darwin Initiative.  Mauritian Wildlife Foundation and National Parks and Conservation Service, Mauritius

Underwood FM and Burn RW (2000) Biometric aspects of sampling for the Cameroon Inventory of Prunus Africana: Mount Cameroon Pilot Phase, Interim Report. Statistical Services Centre, Department of Applied Statistics, University of Reading. Unpublished.

Buckland ST and Underwood FM (2000). Analysis of data and survey design for the MIKE Central African pilot project: first interim report,ANNEX 4. MIKE CITES (UNEP)

Elston DA, Gauld JH, Miller JA, Shewry MC and Underwood FM (1999). The National Countryside Monitoring Scheme Accuracy Assessment. Scottish Natural Heritage Research, Survey & Monitoring Report No. 133. Perth: Scottish Natural Heritage.

Tudor GJ, Shewry MC, Mackey EC, Elston DA and Underwood FM (1999). Land Cover Change in Scotland: The Methodology of the National Countryside Monitoring Scheme. Scottish Natural Heritage Research, Survey and Monitoring Report No 127. Perth: Scottish Natural Heritage.

Tudor GJ, Mackey EC and Underwood FM (1994). National Countryside Monitoring Scheme: The Changing Face of Scotland, 1940s to 1970s: Main Report Perth: Scottish Natural Heritage.

Tudor GJ, Mackey EC and Underwood FM (1994). National Countryside Monitoring Scheme: Technical Report. Perth: Scottish Natural Heritage.

Posters

Underwood FM, Burn RW (2012) Challenges in modelling the drivers of the illegal ivory trade. Time for Causality: Causal Inference and Dynamic Decisions in Longitudinal Studies Research

Underwood FM, Burn RW, Milliken T (2012) Modelling complex systems to guide conservation policy: Monitoring the illegal ivory trade. Planet Under Pressure

Burn RW, Jobling S, Underwood FM (2009) Bayesian latent variable models in ecotoxicology. Reading Systems Biology Network, Launch Day.