Fiona M Underwood

Statistical consultancy & research

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How can we assess the impact of interventions on the illegal ivory trade?

Does destroying ivory stockpiles lead to a decline or an increase in the illegal ivory trade? Have the two highly regulated sales of ivory – the first to Japan in 2000 and the second to Japan and China in 2008 – had an impact on the illegal ivory trade? In this post I look at […]

Filed Under: Causality, Illegal ivory trade

Monitoring the illegal killing of elephants

Monitoring the Ilegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) is one of two global monitoring programs for elephants that was initiated in 1998 by CITES (Convention for International Trade in Endangered Species). Specific objectives of MIKE are:  to measure levels and trends in the illegal hunting of elephants;  to determine changes in these trends over time; and […]

Does an increase in the number of seizures of illegal goods tell us whether illicit trade is increasing or decreasing?

What can we learn about trends in trade of an illicit good from looking at how the number of seizures of an illegal good changes over time? Let us suppose we have the following information. Suppose the law enforcement agencies within a country report seizing 50 shipments of illegal goods* in time period A, 75 […]

Filed Under: Bias adjustment, Illegal ivory trade, Seizures data

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ABOUT ME

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I have experience of collaborating on problems in natural resources management, food security, climate change, international development and the illegal wildlife trade. For more see [...]

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RECENT POSTS

  • Using seizures data to describe the scope and scale of transnational organized crime
  • Using Bayesian Belief Networks to assess how to manage commercial wildlife trade in a complex world

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